Editorial Note: The following news reports are summaries from original sources. They may also include corrections of Arabic names and political terminology. Comments are in parentheses.

 

51 Ukrainian Civilians, Attending a Wake in Hrosa, Killed by a Russian Missile Attack

October 5, 2023

Emergency workers search for victims of the Russian rocket attack that killed dozens of people in the village of Hroza near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on October 5, 2023

 

Russian strike kills dozens of Ukrainian civilians attending a wake, Zelenskyy says

NPR, October 6, 2023

By The Associated Press

HROZA, Ukraine —

A Russian rocket blast turned a village cafe and store in eastern Ukraine into rubble Thursday, killing at least 51 civilians in one of the deadliest attacks in the war in months, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other top officials in Kyiv.

Rescuers searched for survivors in the remains of the only cafe in the village of Hroza. Body parts were strewn across a nearby children's playground that was severely damaged by the strike. Cellphones were collected and put in a courtyard nearby, waiting to be claimed. Occasionally, one of them rang, lighting up a shattered screen.

Around 60 people, including children, were attending a wake at the cafe when the missile hit, Ukrainian officials said.

Zelenskyy, attending a summit of about 50 European leaders in Spain to drum up support from Ukraine's allies, denounced the strike as a "demonstrably brutal Russian crime" and "a completely deliberate act of terrorism."

According to preliminary information from Kyiv, the village was hit by an Iskander missile.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre called the strike "horrifying" and said it demonstrated why the United States is doing everything it can "to help the brave people of Ukraine to fight for their freedom, to fight for their democracy."

Hroza, which had a population of about 500 before the war, is in the northeastern Kharkiv region and was seized by Russia early in the war before being recaptured by Ukraine in September 2022. It's only 30 kilometers (19 miles) west of Kupiansk, a key focus of the Russian military effort. Zelenskyy visited the area Tuesday to meet with troops and inspect equipment supplied by the West.

Dmytro Nechvolot told The Associated Press he was looking for his 60-year-old father, who attended the wake for a soldier from Hroza who died last year but who was reburied after being identified by DNA. Nechvolot kept walking up to his father's red car, which was still parked nearby, while waiting for confirmation that he had been killed.

"I have lost a man I looked up to, a beloved father, and an unforgettable grandfather," he said.

On Thursday, Zelenskyy was at a summit of the European Political Community in Granada, Spain, where he asked for more Western support, saying that "Russian terror must be stopped."

"Russia needs this and similar terrorist attacks for only one thing: to make its genocidal aggression the new norm for the whole world," he said in a statement posted on his Telegram channel. "Now we are talking with European leaders, in particular, about strengthening our air defense, strengthening our soldiers, giving our country protection from terror. And we will respond to the terrorists."

"The key for us, especially before winter, is to strengthen air defense, and there is already a basis for new agreements with partners," he told the group, which was formed in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Heeding Zelenskyy's cry, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany will supply Ukraine with another Patriot missile air defense system. He expects Russia will again target crucial infrastructure and cities across Ukraine in the winter months.

"This is what is now needed the most," Scholz said after meeting Zelenskyy, according to the German news agency dpa.

Last winter, Russia targeted Ukraine's energy system and other vital infrastructure in a steady barrage of missile and drone attacks, triggering continuous power outages across the country. Ukraine's power system has shown a high degree of resilience and flexibility, but there have been concerns that Russia will again ramp up its strikes on power facilities as winter draws near.

Zelenskyy noted that the Granada summit will also focus on "joint work for global food security and protection of freedom of navigation" in the Black Sea, where the Russian military has targeted Ukrainian ports after Moscow's withdrawal from a U.N.-sponsored grain deal designed to ensure safe grain exports from the invaded country's ports.

The U.K. Foreign Office cited intelligence suggesting that Russia may lay sea mines in the approaches to Ukrainian ports to target civilian shipping and blame it on Ukraine.

"Russia almost certainly wants to avoid openly sinking civilian ships, instead falsely laying blame on Ukraine for any attacks against civilian vessels in the Black Sea," it said, adding that the U.K. was working with Ukraine to help improve the safety of shipping.

Speaking in Granada, Zelenskyy emphasized the need to preserve European unity in the face of Russian disinformation and to remain strong amid what he described as a "political storm" in the United States.

Asked if he was worried that support for Ukraine could falter in the U.S. Congress, the Ukrainian president stressed that his visit to Washington last month made him confident of strong backing by both the Biden administration and Congress.

Zelenskyy called for more air defense systems, more artillery weapons and shells, and more long-range missiles and drones for Ukrainian soldiers, as well as other forms of support and security guarantees to help protect Europe from potential aggression by Moscow.

Earlier Thursday, Russia targeted Ukraine's southern regions with drones. Ukraine's air force said the country's air defenses intercepted 24 out of 29 Iranian-made drones that Russia launched at the Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad regions.

Andriy Raykovych, head of the Kirovohrad regional administration, said an infrastructure facility in the region was struck and emergency services were deployed to extinguish a fire, but there were no casualties.

In other Russian attacks in the past day, two civilians were killed by shelling in the southern city of Kherson and one died after a strike on the city of Krasnohorivka in the eastern Donetsk region. At least eight people were wounded, according to Ukraine's presidential office.

A Russian strike on a hospital in the city of Beryslav in the Kherson region ravaged the building and wounded two medical workers, according to the regional administration chief, Oleksandr Prokudin.

Ukraine, in turn, has struck back at Russia with regular drone attacks across the border.

In Russia's Kursk region that borders Ukraine, Gov. Roman Starovoit said Ukrainian drone attacks resulted in power cuts in several areas. He also said Ukrainian forces fired artillery at the border town of Rylsk, wounding a resident and damaging several houses.

Russian strike on Ukrainian village kills more than 50 civilians : NPR

***

Ukraine accuses Russia of targeting funeral

RT, October 5, 2023

A purported missile strike has killed 51 people, officials have said Ukrainian rescuers search through the rubble in Groza on October 5, 2023. 

Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of killing 51 people who were reportedly attending a soldier’s funeral in Kharkov Region on Thursday.

Local officials described the victims as residents of Groza, a village with a reported population of 330. They had apparently come to a small establishment that was hosting a private ceremony for a local man who had been killed early in the conflict with Russia. His remains were recently exhumed and brought to Groza for reburial, according to local media.

Groza is located some 30km west of Kupyansk, a major flashpoint between Ukrainian and Russian forces on the northern part of the frontline. Ukraine’s Interior Ministry claimed the strike involved a Russian ground-launched Iskander missile.

The Russian Defense Ministry has not commented on the accusations. However, when asked about the Groza incident on Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated Moscow’s stated military policy of not targeting civilian sites. Russian attacks “are only delivered at military infrastructure and locations where troops and military leadership congregate,” he said.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky branded the tragedy a “demonstratively brutal crime” and an “intentional terrorist attack” by Russia, offering no evidence of the claim.

The Ukrainian president was attending a conference in Granada, Spain when the alleged incident is said to have taken place. Zelensky’s stated goal at the event was to secure continued military and civilian assistance for Kiev from EU countries. His mission is more pressing due to uncertainty in the US over continued Congressional funding for Ukraine’s war effort. In his remarks at the conference, which centered on condemning Russia’s military operation, he stressed the importance of his mission to rally European support.

The Ukrainian leader has previously blamed Russia for several deadly incidents, without providing evidence to support his accusations. Last month, he accused Moscow of deliberately striking a marketplace in the Donbass city of Konstantinovka. The attack happened on the day US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was visiting Kiev and showcased “the audacity of evil,” according to Zelensky.

The New York Times later reported that evidence discovered by its investigators indicated that the missile was Ukrainian. The newspaper said the footage of the strike, forensic evidence at the scene, and eyewitness reports of a Ukrainian launch from a nearby location all pointed toward a mishap by Kiev’s forces.

Last week, Polish authorities confirmed that a Ukrainian missile was responsible for the deaths of two Polish farmers in a border village last November. Zelensky claimed from the start that the incident was a Russian attack on “collective security” and insisted that Moscow was guilty despite an announcement from Warsaw early into the probe that Ukrainian troops likely fired the projectile.

Ukraine accuses Russia of targeting funeral — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union

***

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has reached a stalemate

KARTIK BOMMAKANTI

 

The limited application of means by both Russia and Ukraine has resulted in a protracted war that is fast moving towards a stalemate

The war between Russia and Ukraine, which broke last year following the former’ invasion, is deadlocked. Ukraine’s counter-offensive has stalled or at least the progress made by Ukrainian ground forces has been limited. Just as the initial Russian offensive stalled due to an impressive Ukrainian fightback and were gradually reversed, Ukraine—if not suffering exactly the reverses Moscow did—has remained incapable of breaking through Russian defences as the result of its counteroffensive.

Ukraine’s counter-offensive has stalled or at least the progress made by Ukrainian ground forces has been limited.

Three specific factors are responsible for the current operational impasse. Firstly, neither side has been able to or has shown a readiness to prosecute this military campaign decisively. Secondly, fears of escalation, if new weapons were introduced during the course of the war for the last 18 months, have tempered the intensity of combat, but done little to end it. Finally, low morale, which has been prominently visible among Russian forces for most of the active combat in the last one-and-a-half years, is becoming evident among Ukrainians. Prosecuting a military campaign with limited means has been the feature of the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia never fully committed and deployed the kind of capabilities necessary to win the war decisively. Ukraine has done the same, but for different reasons.

Why has the war reached its current impasse?

Firstly, Russia’s much touted cyber capabilities were nowhere nearly as potent as expected and the Russian leadership, for still unexplained reasons, did not use combat airpower. Explanations for the non-use of airpower, at best and anecdotally, have ranged from the Russian Air Force’s lack of experience in multi-domain operations with ground forces, to risk aversion and poor pilot training. Compounding these failures was Moscow’s ground offensive, which involved poor strategy and long supply lines that made Russian forces sitting ducks for the Ukrainians. Russia, however, is regrouping after blunting Ukraine’s current counteroffensive, largely due to the Russian military’s build-up of formidable defensive fortifications packed with landmines, which Moscow invested in establishing while 12 armoured brigades of the Ukrainian Army were away training in North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) countries. Inadequate use of combat power and sustainment have given opportunities to both sides to regroup and fight back.

Explanations for the non-use of airpower, at best and anecdotally, have ranged from the Russian Air Force’s lack of experience in multi-domain operations with ground forces, to risk aversion and poor pilot training.

Kyiv, for its part, has not suffered from Russia’s inadequate application of military power. At least not deliberately, Ukraine’s leadership has been fettered by its ally and primary military supplier—NATO. Notwithstanding the limited success Ukraine has had in its counteroffensive, its military progress has been substantially constrained due to insufficient military support from its NATO ally. Indeed, according to United States (US) intelligence, Kyiv will fail to secure its key goal of seizing Melitopol, which is vital if Ukrainian forces are to capture Crimea. Melitopol also serves as a land bridge with a railroad and highways, enabling Russia to keep its forces supplied across occupied Ukraine from the Crimean Peninsula. Capturing Melitopol, let alone Crimea, now looks increasingly difficult. At least so far, these factors have played a vital part in preventing both sides from prosecuting the war to a decisive conclusion.

Secondly, the US—the largest external contributor to Ukraine’s military effort—has dithered in supplying the Ukrainians with the kinds of weapons systems and capabilities that Kyiv has sought since the first days of the Russian invasion. If anything, leaked documents from American intelligence made a grim assessment going back to April this year, confirming that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will likely fail due to inadequate supply of equipment and ammunition by NATO, preventing the Ukrainian forces from recapturing Russian occupied areas of Ukraine.

Since the onset of hostilities, the US refused to send High Altitude Mobility Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and when it did supply them, it was only a limited number in late June 2022, which was four months after the Russian invasion. Following the Ukrainian establishment of what the Americans called “a proof of concept”, or Ukraine’s effective use of HIMARS, did Washington commit to dispatching more HIMARS. The latest manifestation of this US-led NATO hesitation in supporting the Ukrainians is the West’s, especially Washington’s, resistance to employ combat airpower against the Russians. Notwithstanding Washington’s consent of late to allow some European members of NATO to train Ukrainian fighter pilots for the use of F-16s, the pilots will not be combat ready to fly the jets until the summer of 2024. As one British expert aptly put it: “We [NATO] have always given them [Ukraine] what they need just about in time. Now we may be giving them what they need, just about too late.”

Notwithstanding Washington’s consent of late to allow some European members of NATO to train Ukrainian fighter pilots for the use of F-16s, the pilots will not be combat ready to fly the jets until the summer of 2024.

Finally, morale is taking a hit amongst Ukrainian men. Military age men are avoiding combat duties on the frontlines by bribing military officials at recruitment centres across Ukraine, compelling Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy to crackdown on corruption. The flight of fighting age men from Ukraine spells ominous signs for Ukraine’s military campaign to evict the Russian occupation of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. If this resistance were to persist, Kyiv might be compelled not to press ahead with its counteroffensive and battle lines could stabilise and settle around where they are today. This would fundamentally mean Russia retaining most of what it annexed from Ukraine in 2014 and Kyiv securing the remainder of the country. Yet, this possibility might not hold, because Moscow, now chuffed by its formidable defence, is likely planning and preparing its own offensive for the second time.

The mutual fear of escalation has only prolonged the conflict with no end in sight. The recent operational setbacks the Ukrainians have suffered does not spell defeat for Kyiv, and, as we have seen throughout the course of this war, they are capable of reversing losses. However, this time, as noted earlier, NATO’s military aid may have come little too late and when coupled with a decline in Ukrainian morale, the chances of a stalemate are likely to be high or at least the Ukrainian military abandoning their offensive and retreating to defensive positions is entirely possible. Regardless of the eventual outcome, one thing that has been validated by this conflict is that the defence, as Clausewitz put it, tends to be stronger than the offence in war. Just as the Russian offensive against Ukraine in February 2022 was substantially thwarted by a robust defence by the Ukrainian military, the Russian military’s defensive measures today have likewise significantly eroded the Ukrainian counteroffensive. There is also another lesson from this war—that if a war is to be fought and won decisively, even if the war is limited in its aims, it cannot and should not mean the application of limited means. Indeed, the aims maybe limited, but means used must be disproportionate and the effort maximum.

Kartik Bommakanti is a Senior Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has reached a stalemate | ORF (orfonline.org)

***